BTC moon price predictions


#1

I would be keen to know what everyone’s “moon” price is for Bitcoin. Include a reason if you can. This is to be a fairly optimistic future price estimation over the next 5-10 years and assuming nothing catastrophic happens. I have seen figures of $500,000 per coin from john McAfee, even $1 million somewhere.

I posted an article on steemit.com that shows my own future estimation after some analysis. Please see below:

Why Bitcoin should hit at least $42,049

Just like gold Bitcoin is used as a store of value and may even in the future be a more popular choice than gold is for this purpose. Let’s make a sensible and conservative assumption that just 10% of the wealth currently stored in gold is transferred to Bitcoin.

The current gold price per Kg is: $40,574

The estimated amount of gold that has been mined from the earth is: 171,300 tonnes. That’s metric tonnes (1 tonne = 1,000 Kg)

From these figures we can form an effective market cap for gold which is simply done by multiplying the total number of Kg’s by the market price for 1Kg of gold.

171,000 x 1000 x 40,574

This figure comes out at: $6,938,154,000,000

That’s almost $7 Trillion

Now we said that we will be conservative and assume that just 10% of this stored wealth will transfer to Bitcoin which suggests a total future market cap for Bitcoin at $693,815,400,000

So how about a price per Bitcoin? The current Bitcoin protocol states that when mining is complete in approximately the year 2140 there will be 21,000,000 Bitcoins. The current circulation of Bitcoins is approximately 16,500,00. So to get the per Bitcoin price we simply divide the market cap by the number of coins, which gives us:

$42,049.42 (Based on current circulation)

$33,038.83 (Based on all coins mined)

This is all based on today’s figures which does not even take in to account: the long term rising price of gold, inflation devaluing fiat currency, growing distrust in fiat currency and finally the fact that more wealth is being produced as economies grow and develop around the world. All of the above factors would push those price estimates up even further.

In my opinion this valuation hinges on weather Bitcoin and other cryptos will stand the test of time and will be around for the long term. Though now that nations, banks and influential people are acknowledging the relevance of cryptos I think it’s now more likely than not that they will survive and prosper.

Thanks for reading.

Dave

Original article: https://steemit.com/money/@drwyness/why-bitcoin-should-hit-at-least-usd42-049


#2

We agree that cryptocurrency space will get bigger. The open question is which coin or coins will ultimately dominate.

Bitcoin has a first mover advantage, both in terms of early adoption and publicity. But we are of the opinion that no proof of work system is ultimately sustainable, not to mention the well acknowledged scalability problem of the global database alone.

That these are still definitively unresolved issues is a sufficient explanation of why new altcoins continue to launch. Any price prediction now about a particular coin may be making assumptions about its adoption longevity that will be rebutted tomorrow. It may well be that the best solution has yet to surface.

Stay tuned, for the wheel’s still in spin . . .


#3

I think this is a huge problem that Bitcoin still needs to address and will determine whether or not Bitcoin will have relevance. I like how people talk about Bitcoin becoming a global currency but with its current mining issues and the high economical and environmental impact, it simply cannot become a global currency without drastic changes.

Even with the help of the lightning network it is still far, far away from achieving this. There is currently an approximate 3,5M active wallets in Bitcoin, which is a tiny percentage of the global population, yet a single transactions uses up enough energy to power 14 households in the US for a day. In its current structure if it were to become a global currency then it would quickly overtake global energy consumption through increased adoption.

Next to that, in terms of price predictions, the mining in bitcoin is regulated, as opposed to gold mining, the price of bitcoin needs to artificially increase in 2 years time since block rewards half, and again in 6 years. You cannot have a true currency where there is constant price manipulation.

I believe in blockchain and cryptocurrency and I’m in awe for what Bitcoin and the Blockchain have done in terms of changing the world. But I don’t see it having a long term future, there are already better solutions available.